We at investorAi have been saying for some time to watch jobless claims closely. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits has again increased and is now at an 11-month high. Even though claims tend to be volatile around this time of year we think previous data points indicate an important direction: the labor market is soft and getting worse.
The report from the Labor Department on Thursday 1st August 2024 also showed the number of people on jobless rolls increasing in mid-July to the highest level since late 2021. This development could stoke fears of a more rapid labor market deterioration that could drag markets down. The Dow (
DJI.IDX) fell 500 points on this news today. These fears (some of which we warned clients over) also occurred in June when data indicated that the unemployment rate had risen to a 2-1/2-year high of 4.1%.
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