In the past month, investors have been a little surprised by the US economic outlook. Today saw another of those surprises.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index unexpectedly rose to +0.05 In February which caused some surprise as investors had expected the activity index, to fall to a negative 0.50 from the negative 0.30 originally reported for the previous month.
This is a significant rise from January's revised figure of minus 0.54. Notably, all four categories tracked by the index demonstrated improvement, with three of them positively contributing to the headline index.
Production exhibited a slightly positive turn, alongside sales, orders, inventories, and employment, as reported by the reserve bank. However, personal consumption and housing remained neutral in their contribution.
Despite the positive momentum in February, the index's three-month moving average suggested a more subdued activity level. Additionally, the CFNAI diffusion index, ...
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